Too Much SDS
Well, you can tell it is pre-season in the chasing community. The first potential SP chase of the season is showing up in the models. The boards are alive with activity. The nay-sayers are playing the half empty card of "lack of moisture, lack of instability, no convergence, where's the lift, blah...blah....blah!" And the half full people are just wanting to chase, even if it is just a mini-sup lightning event.
March is not only the start of the battle between winter and spring, but also the start of the chasing communities "battle of wit's". I personally love this battle. It generally turns into the "mets" vs. the "chasers" and heated and passionate discussions will soon prevail. If you are a player in this game, it is time to saddle up and take sides. If you are a spectator to the sport, much like myself, it is time to sit back and enjoy the ride.
I am not an expert forecaster so I rely on the knowledge of the people who have been there and done that more than me. I generally don't even attempt a forecast until 24 hours out. I don't know if that is because I don't want to get my hopes up for a big event that shows up on some model 5 days out or if it is because I don't want to remind myself that I really don't know what the hell I am doing. For me it is much easier to be a "nowcaster" than a "forecaster". My brain works in the now and not the future. I have always been that way. Shit, I can't even set future goals in my life. I am a spontaneous and impulsive person. Always have been, always will be. My talent seems to be looking at mesoscale analysis and radar and picking a storm that will produce. It just clicks in my brain that cell "A" is moving into this environment and has a radar sig that looks like so and so. I know that that info on a the screen won't tell me if the cell will actually put down a tube but it will tell me which ones won't. In this game it is all about odds. The best chasers put the odds in their favor on a consistent basis. Even the elite chasers will never score 100% of the time, but there is a reason for their success, and it ain't all luck either.
Well that is it for today. I am realizing that this forum is just a place for me to put my random thoughts in a physical media. I hope that some people get pissed at my thoughts and I hope that some people relate to them as well.
March is not only the start of the battle between winter and spring, but also the start of the chasing communities "battle of wit's". I personally love this battle. It generally turns into the "mets" vs. the "chasers" and heated and passionate discussions will soon prevail. If you are a player in this game, it is time to saddle up and take sides. If you are a spectator to the sport, much like myself, it is time to sit back and enjoy the ride.
I am not an expert forecaster so I rely on the knowledge of the people who have been there and done that more than me. I generally don't even attempt a forecast until 24 hours out. I don't know if that is because I don't want to get my hopes up for a big event that shows up on some model 5 days out or if it is because I don't want to remind myself that I really don't know what the hell I am doing. For me it is much easier to be a "nowcaster" than a "forecaster". My brain works in the now and not the future. I have always been that way. Shit, I can't even set future goals in my life. I am a spontaneous and impulsive person. Always have been, always will be. My talent seems to be looking at mesoscale analysis and radar and picking a storm that will produce. It just clicks in my brain that cell "A" is moving into this environment and has a radar sig that looks like so and so. I know that that info on a the screen won't tell me if the cell will actually put down a tube but it will tell me which ones won't. In this game it is all about odds. The best chasers put the odds in their favor on a consistent basis. Even the elite chasers will never score 100% of the time, but there is a reason for their success, and it ain't all luck either.
Well that is it for today. I am realizing that this forum is just a place for me to put my random thoughts in a physical media. I hope that some people get pissed at my thoughts and I hope that some people relate to them as well.
posted by Mike P at
9:12 AM
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