WOW, Lezak lays himself out.....

If you are not a regular reader of the KSHB weather blog you should be. It offers incredible insight into what professional TV meteorologist go through when making forecasts for the public. In his latest blog entry found HERE he totally lays himself out for future criticism. I like the bold move, personally. He is a firm believer in a recurring annual weather pattern that he has named the LRC (Lezak Recurring Cycle). I don't feel like explaining it here but it is a non-proven and highly circumstantial theory of a cycling weather pattern that sets up each year and repeats itself on a specific day cycle until it is replaced by a new cycle at the end of every summer. Gary 100% believes in this theory and I love hearing and reading about it when he describes it. His passion for it comes through and it intrigues me to continue to think and study it.

Now for the reason of this new blog. He and his fellow meteorologist, Jeff Penner, have found a very intriguing similarity with the La Nina year of 1959-1960. The long wave troughs and the basic day cycle of that year are very similar to what he and Jeff believe is happening this year. They are not identical but very close matches. In that year Kansas City had one of the snowiest years ever. Since Gary is a HUGE snow and winter lover he gets excited about the possibility of snow and winter precipitation. His conclusion is that since the winter on 59-60 is so similar to the pattern of this year that he believes there is a possibility of a whole lot of snow for this winter season. Only time will tell but man he really opened himself up. As usual, he left himself some outs like "We will stick to our winter forecast which includes 19 inches of snow, but now that we know the pattern better I am expecting it to go over that total, possilby much higher." If it only snow around 19" then he will still claim a victory but at the same time if it snows much more then he is right as well. Sort of.

The models continue to put a storm on our region on Saturday the 22nd. Every run flip flops a little bit toward snow, no snow, then snow again. We are still WAY out so I will continue to check in on this system as it evolves. Needless to say, if the 00z run of last night verifies we will have a very good chance at a white Christmas.

Later