Winter Storm Today

Good Morning,

Well, I am well rested and feeling good this morning. Nothing like a good nights sleep to make a person feel better. As far as the weather goes, I am still feeling a little weird about todays possibilities. My main concern is looking at the 850mb RUC charts. As of 8:45 this morning there is a nice batch of precipitation already heading our way. However, it is all rain. Why? Well, at 850mb it is still above freezing. The RUC, in fact, does not even predict that level to cool off until 21z (3PM CST) today. That means if this precip holds together, then for the next 6 hours we will watch it rain. The latest HPC QPF map shows a nice .66" of QPF right over Ottawa. But, will that verify as rain or frozen precip? Only the speed of the low and the shape of the comma head will determine the snow amount here. We will see. I have no doubt we will see nice precip totals around but will it be frozen or liquid? Such is the fun of forecasting.

My official snow predictions 2" in my backyard. We shall see.

Later